RBA Fireside Chat

• Inflation, Employment & Monetary Policy: The RBA has worked to bring inflation down from nearly 8% in 2022, with recent rate cuts aiming to stabilize prices and support employment. Forecasts suggest inflation will hover near target and employment will remain steady.

• Economic Heterogeneity & Credit Condition: Australia’s economy shows regional and sectoral variation—robust in QLD and WA, slower in Victoria. Business credit is steady, with some pickup in consumer and investor lending, though startups face tighter access.

• Housing Market & Cost of Living: Mortgage stress is easing as wages outpace CPI and tax cuts take effect. Rate cuts have boosted housing prices and lending, but structural supply issues—like construction costs and approvals—remain unresolved.

• Productivity, AI & Sectoral Trends: AI is expected to contribute long-term productivity gains, but it could be a while before we see the dividends reflected in the data. Construction, infrastructure, and resources sectors face strong demand but are constrained by supply chain capacity.

• Global Uncertainty & Financial Monitoring: The RBA is closely watching global shifts, including US-China dynamics and financial markets. Monthly CPI data is volatile but broadly aligns with forecasts. Key risks include international instability and domestic economic imbalances.